I last ran these numbers in July to analyze the semi-annual numbers. Now is as good a time as any to see how the market is faring. We’re through November, which is when the Home Buyer Tax Credit was anticipated to expire, so we should see how it, coupled with historically low interest rates, has affected the market, along with the news that Austin has officially exited the recession. Here are the Austin statistics for the past 6 months – 6/1/2009-11/30/2009 & their year/year changes.
Total sold volume was up just under 7%. If you look at the price point break down, it’s obvious that the tax credit helped significantly. Over half the volume sold was under $200k. As you move upwards in price point, the sold volume steadily decreases (the anomaly being $2mm+, which requires little movement to see big percentage changes.) Looking at these numbers, it appears to me that the market is or has stabilized. It can be argued that the tax credit affects the $300k+ market very little, yet we’re seeing volume change settle across the board.
Running inventory statistics at this time of year can be a bit misleading. We’re pulling absorption rate from the summer months (busiest) and running inventory stats during the winter months (slowest.) A certain percentage of sellers will have withdrawn their homes during November with the intention of putting them back on the market around February. Since 11/1/2009, 1526 properties have been pulled from the market. Regardless, if you add these properties into inventory to bring the # listed to 11431, we still have a total of 5.68 months of inventory. This is an improvement over the 7.54 months/inventory we saw at the end of June.
We’re seeing the same price striations we saw at the end of June, though the levels aren’t as pronounced.
Great article.
As in other jurisdictions, the data indicates that the trend is finally shifting and that a slow recovery is approaching. Keep an eye out for a spike in home sales in the lower price range as first time home buyers are enticed by tax incentives.
Thanks for posting this data. More people need to see that market in the Austin area is becoming more stable. Everyone I talk to only watches the news and talks about how bad it is in places like FL. I have been telling them that it’s that bad in this area and the numbers dont lie. Again thanks for posting this.
Nice to see someone bringing us some good news at last.
You guys are selling way to many homes in Austin, and having to much fun! The wow effect is where the 2 million plus homes have more than quadrupled in numbers! Got to love Austin.
Where is the price data?
Yep I sure love Austin!
@Christopher -
I pulled the data from the MLS. We’re not allowed to publish specific sold data (per unit.) If you have any statistical requests, let me know, and I can run them for you.
It certainly looks promising. Hopefully t can be sustained